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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts 11.21.18

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Nov21, 2018 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

Today's blog post comes to you on the eve of Thanksgiving. We wish you and your loved ones a safe and happy holiday! After another week of volatility, what do investors consider the biggest risk to the markets - is it the trade war or the FED's quantitative tightening? The U.S. stock market is no longer outperforming the rest of the world. China’s rise in wages is undoubtedly a positive for workers, but China is growing less and less competitive in the manufacturing space. Lastly, what Thanksgiving side will you bring to the table? See what families across America like best!

 

1. What issues do investors feel are the greatest risk to the markets?

 

 tail risk

Source: BoA Merrill Lynch Global Research, as of 11/20/18

 

 

2. The selling pressure in high yield bonds has accelerated and prices and yields are feeling the effects...  

 

 iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF

 

 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 11/20/18

 

 

3. Perhaps the cause of the performance gap closing...

 

 US outperformance on earnings

 

Source: Gavekal Data, as of 11/20/18

 

 

4. Now that the U.S. has stopped out-performing the rest of the world, the question becomes will this 15% gap close?

 

 FTSE all world ex U.S.

 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 11/20/18

 

 

5. Regardless of cause or reason, U.S. households and U.S. corporations have taken a different approach to debt...

 

 a tale of two cycles for households vs non financial corporations

 Source: Federal Reserve Board, as of 11/20/18

 

 

6. China's rise in wages is actually making China less and less competitive versus many other EM economies.

 

 annual salary of asian manufacturing workers

Source: JETRO, ANZ Research, as of 11/20/18

 

 

7. What side dish are you bringing to your Thanksgiving dinner?

 

 11.21 chart 7

Source: SurveyMonkey, as of 11/20/18

 

 

 

We are thankful for a lot of things this year. We feel especially grateful for the faith and trust our clients have put in BCM, and we look forward to helping our clients navigate through these uncertain times in the markets. Outside of investing, we at BCM know how important it is to give back to our local communities and those in need. 

 

In the spirit of the holiday season, read 8 Ways You Can Give Back this Thanksgiving. 

 

8 Ways You Can Give Back This Thanksgiving

  

  

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.