With the holiday season upon us, will a boost in retail sales help improve S&P 500 performance? The DOW Transportation Average is giving off bearish signals. Oil has cascaded down over 40% in last couple of months. What do next year’s rate hikes look like priced into the futures markets? Net trade has been a drag on European nations' GDP – further proof that the trade war’s effects are globalized. What do next year’s rate hikes look like priced into the futures markets?
1. Will a Santa Claus rally improve this picture?
Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 12/10/18
2. A view from the technical side...
Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 12/10/18
3. High yield credit spreads are blowing out...
Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 12/7/18
4. An update on the yield curve and the inversion...
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 12/7/18
5. If the market is now discounting the 3 additional rate hikes to less than one, what does this tell us about the expectations for the economy next year?
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 12/6/18
6. The DOW Theory just flashed a bearish signal...
Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 12/6/18
7. Historically, the PMI has been a good coincidental economic indicator.
Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 12/10/18
8. Oil is a poster child for an asset class that cascades down...down over 40% in ~2 months.
Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 12/10/18
9. The trade war is having a clear effect on European GDP.
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 12/5/18
10. Japanese GDP was worse than expected...
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, Capital Economics, as of 12/7/18
It has been over a decade since the bear market of 2007-2009 unfolded. Ever look closely at how a typical bear unfolds and when the most money is lost? For lessons from bear markets past, and how you can prepare for whenever the next one rears its head, read “Anatomy of a Bear Market” by BCM Portfolio Manager Dave Haviland.
Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.
