The dollar continues to rise up as the Fed's policy diverges from much of the world. Several charts on oil show that not only is production increasing, but also taking in more light crude. As expected, the US trade deficit improved as imports slowed. Finally, foreign demand for Treasuries has slowed.
1. If the US pays more in short term interest than other countries/currencies, then international capital will buy more of the USD.
Source: Barchart; As of 5/3/18
2. "US Crude oil production continues to climb..."
Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 4/27/18
3. and...
Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 5/3/18
4. Our refineries are (finally) starting to convert over so we can actually use our own light, sweet shale oil.
Source: EIA; As of 5/1/18
5. The U.S. has trillions to finance/refinance. If demand begins to wane and supply increases significantly, economics 101 tells us rates should rise....
Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 5/3/18
6. ...Shown graphically...
Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 5/3/18
7. Confirmation on what we have been writing about for months...
Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 5/4/18
When we say we have been writing about this for months, we mean it! Read our annual report on the state of the bond markets from the start of this year that depicts our fears of the FED's Quantitative Easing (QE) program.
8. Some good news...
Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 5/2/18
9. Unwelcome developments. Is global growth being "eroded" by rising U.S. interest rates?
Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 5/4/18
10. A good question...
Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 5/3/18
11. An update on earnings...
Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 5/4/18
Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.
