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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts 6.4.18

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Jun04, 2018 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

A great recap chart shows the trend and rate of change of U.S. manufacturing. COGS (costs of good sold) has been rising since 2016 as we also explore countries threatening retaliation on tariffs, a history of U.S. crude oil production back to the 20th century, commodities, and unemployment. 


1. A nice recap of U.S. manufacturing.

 

u.s. manufacturing

Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 6/4/18

 

 

2. The costs of goods sold has been rising since 2016. If it continues, we should see higher prices (inflation) or reduced margins.

 

ism manufacturing prices paid 

Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 6/3/18

 

 

3. Lesser use of tariffs, in recent history, have led to a weaker USD.

 

past protectionism associated with dollar weakness 

Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 5/23/18

 

 

4. Did anyone think our trading partners were going to do nothing in response to our tariffs?

 

countries have threatened retaliation

Source: WSJ Daily Shot,  As of 6/4/18

 

 

5. As we wrote in our tariff paper, not only do tariffs not work, they can have the exact opposite of the intended effect!

 

steel tariffs

Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 5/30/18

 

 

6. Has European growth broken the uptrend?

 

eurozone manufacturing

Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 5/31/18

 

 

7. Yes, we like historical perspective.

 

u.s. oil production

Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 5/30/18

 

8. Mr. Robertson was right!

 

global plastic production

Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 5/29/18

 

 

9. What a difference one month can make!
 

 2018 year to date percentage change

Source: Thechartstore.com; As of 6/1/18

 

 

10. Despite USD strength, commodities are trying to break out to the upside.

 

equal weight continuous commodity index

Source: Thechartstore.com; As of 6/4/18

 

 

11. Same chart, longer view...for, you know, historical perspective. 

 

equal weight continuous commodity index

Source: Thechartstore.com; As of 6/4/18

 

 

12. A longer term view of unemployment.

 

unemployment rate

Source: Thechartstore.com; As of 5/25/18

 

 

Have you caught up on our most recent post?

 

 

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.