David M. Haviland
Recent Posts
LISTEN: PM Brendan Ryan on 'Behind the Markets'
August 4, 2020Elevated equity risk, rock-bottom interest rates, and climbing credit risk in an uncertain economy are just a few of the threats investors are facing more than six months into the ...
VIDEO: BCM's 2Q20 Quarterly Market Update Call with the PM
July 23, 2020We've come a long way since the onset of the Covid-19 crisis and resultant market meltdown in Q1—the S&P 500® Index has erased its losses for the year and the Nasdaq has ...
Watch: How to Invest Opportunistically and Defensively in a New Investment Paradigm
July 16, 2020In this record-low interest rate environment, advisors will need to adapt—stepping beyond traditional asset allocation and the 60/40 ...
The Anatomy of a Bear Market
June 2, 2020Updated: 6/25/20 What does a typical bear market look like? How long do they last? When are the majority of the losses incurred? Most investors believe that the losses occur fairly evenly throughout a bear. Based on the past, with one and now possibly two notable exceptions, nothing could be further from the truth. In another piece we wrote about bear markets, Tactical to ...
Using Total Return to Meet Your Clients' Withdrawal Needs
May 21, 2020We originally posted this piece back in 2016 when the 10-year U.S. Treasury (UST) yield was ~1.9%. At that time, most were predicting a rise in interest rates and it would have been hard to imagine that four years later, the 10-year UST would be ~0.65%—especially given where interest rates had been for the preceding decades. Now, the Total Return concept is even more relevant today with interest rates at record lows and no one knows how long they will remain at this level, or where they may go from here. Read on as BCM Portfolio ...
A Caution From 2007: Beware of the Dividend in Your High Dividend ETFs & Funds
April 23, 2020Remember this? It’s late in 2007 and the banks have already started their downward spiral. As their prices fell, their dividend yields rose. Most “high yielding,” “high dividend” or “dividend achiever” type ETFs/funds rebalance quarterly, so at year end, what did they do? They loaded up on bank stocks.
VIDEO: BCM's 1Q20 Quarterly Market Update Call with the PM
April 16, 2020A few weeks ago we provided a Special Update from BCM's Managing Partner and Portfolio Manager, Dave Haviland. At that time ...
Special Update From BCM Portfolio Manager: Coronavirus and Current Market Conditions
March 20, 2020The emergence of COVID-19 and its rapid spread have sparked an exceptional market meltdown and a fundamental restructuring of our daily lives. In this uncertain time, we wanted to ...
Recent Repo Market Fiasco and Intervention
March 3, 2020Recently a reader asked us to explain “the recent Repo Market Fiasco and the Fed’s intervention,” as well as the consequences and outcomes. For those of you who regularly read our blog, we first included a chart on this subject on September 23, 2019. The answer is fairly technical, but let’s focus on some charts to show the enormity of the issue first.
From the Desk of the PM - Update on Market Selloff and and Coronavirus Fears
February 27, 2020With the sudden drop in the global equity markets, we thought it might be helpful to remind everyone about where we have been, where we are now, and share some helpful source information. Before we discuss the virus, let’s go back and remind everyone that U.S. large cap stocks, after demonstrating a decade of leadership, may have gotten ahead of themselves from a valuation standpoint. As the chart below from Ed Yardeni Research shows, the forward P/E of the S&P 500 reached 19X—which is a level not seen since the Dot.com bubble in the late 1990’s—and, depending on ...
