David M. Haviland
Recent Posts
2018: The State of the Bond Markets Part 2
January 30, 2018Last week in 2018: The State of the Bond Markets Part 1, we shared our fear for possible ramifications of the Fed's QE (quantitative easing) program that may foreshadow a policy mistake; the Fed will try to raise interest rates too far, too fast. As we delve into Part 2, it is reasonable to review the government's total debt and the overstimulated money supply in this country.
2018: The State of the Bond Markets Part 1
January 25, 2018In our 2017 State of the Bond Markets piece, we outlined how the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) bought bonds from the open market in an effort to stimulate the U.S. and Global economies from the recession caused by the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis. Now in 2018, we would like to focus on the possibility that the Fed, and perhaps other central banks, will again make a policy mistake with massive ramifications.
Policy Mistakes and their Economic Consequences: Now the Fed is Tapering QE... What could possibly go wrong?
November 9, 2017The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank’s (Fed) policy mistakes(tightening too far and/or too fast) have had a hand in every recession since WWII. The last time the Fed raised rates in 2004-2006, they increased the short-term
Longest Bulls Since WW2
October 20, 2017We are currently enjoying the second longest bull market in history. The chart below gives us a great historical perspective as to how all the secular bull markets since World War II have looked. How long will this bull market last? No one truly knows. It might outlast the mighty 1990’s bull… or end tomorrow. Our philosophy believe
Is Low Volatility about to get SKEWered?
July 13, 2017Let’s first review the definition of the SKEW index. The CBOE Skew Index- referred as “SKEW”- is an option-based indicator that measures the perceived tail risk of the distribution of S&P 500® lndex returns at a 30-day horizon. Tail risk is the risk associated with an increase in the probability of outlier returns, returns two or more standard deviations below the mean.
Slow U.S. Economic Growth Explained in 1 Simple Chart
June 28, 2017Our economy is cyclical and often it acts like a pendulum that swings too far. And it did. In the lead-up to the financial crisis in 2007-2009, U.S. Housing completions peaked at just over a 2.2 million unit annualized rate. During the great Recession that followed (recessions are denoted in grey), housing completions plummeted to ...
A TIPS Refresher
June 9, 2017For those that need a refresher, here is a recent article from Financial Advisor magazine that helps describe Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS).
Some Things To Remember When Buying A (First) Home
May 18, 2017You are about to make the largest purchase of your life. Protect yourself! Here is a list of items to keep in mind before buying a house.
International Equities: Is it Time?
May 11, 2017Russia invades Crimea. China builds island bases in the South China Sea. North Korea launches ICBMs and tests its first nuclear weapons. Grexit. Brexit. South Korean Presidential corruption and impeachment. Venezuelan economic turmoil. The U.S. re-opens relations with Cuba. ISIS and world terror. Syrian civil war. U.S. dollar strength. Negative interest rates and slow economic growth. Immigration crises across the globe.
Tactical Management and How It Differs from from Active
April 27, 2017Active vs. Passive Management Active management can be thought of as any strategy that uses human discretion to decide what the portfolio should own. The manager(s) generally employs some combination of fundamental, quantitative, or technical research in ...
