Happy Monday, Fireside Charts readers! We mentioned the "rosy" outlook of Friday's jobs report last week, but let's take a minute today to stop and smell those roses. Private payrolls came in at more than double the expected figure and unemployment's revisiting its 2019 low—the third lowest since the 1940's—and wage growth has topped the mortgage rate for the first time in nearly 50 years. Not too shabby! It isn't all good news though, as extreme lows in unemployment often precede recessions, and despite the GM strike coming to a close, the manufacturing sector is still struggling. Could that by why Wall Street strategists look to be heading into 2020 with bear-y, excuse us... very measured expectations? If Thanksgiving week sales figures are anything to go by, consumer sentiment remains high... is it time to reset their expectations?
1. The Sahm rule goes back in the closet for now... the jobs report with some historical perspective:
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/9/19
2. Here is the current job cycle compared to all others going back to WWII...
Source: The Chart Store, from 12/6/19
3. U.S. Job growth has been terrific!... except in manufacturing:
Source: ISM, from 12/6/19
4. Perhaps this year's client reviews should come with a reality/expectations check!
Source: Bloomberg, from 12/7/19
5. A nice print from the world's 3rd largest economy...
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/9/19
6. Billionaires (in today's dollars) have been around for centuries:
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/9/19
The Fed's December meeting kicks off tomorrow and—while expectations are low that we'll hear news of another cut—interest rates are already at historical lows, and that can complicate things for those reliant on fixed income returns. How can you uncomplicate them? Use Total Return! Click below to read more from BCM Portfolio Manager and Managing Partner, Dave Haviland.
Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.
