--- title: "Fireside Charts: Jobs Reports, Service Sector Slowdown, and Are We in a Large-Cap Super-Cycle?" description: Market highlights in charts - ADP and Labor Department jobs reports paint conflicting pictures, services sector slows, and large-cap continues to dominate image: https://1782947.hs-sites.com/hubfs/12.6%20Chart%203.png --- - [Login](http://investbcm.com/wp-login.php) - [Register](http://etf.investbcm.com/register) [![Beaumont_Logo_4C - powered by AIM](https://1782947.hs-sites.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Beaumont_Logo_4C%20-%20powered%20by%20AIM.png?width=429&height=254&name=Beaumont_Logo_4C%20-%20powered%20by%20AIM.png)](http://investbcm.com/) **A Bird's Eye View Blog** # Fireside Charts: Jobs Reports, Service Sector Slowdown, and Are We in a Large-Cap Super-Cycle? By:[BCM Investment Team](http://1782947.hs-sites.com/author/bcm-investment-team) | Date:Dec06, 2019 | [Category:](http://1782947.hs-sites.com) [Equity](http://1782947.hs-sites.com/topic/equity), [Economics](http://1782947.hs-sites.com/topic/economics), [Market Highlights](http://1782947.hs-sites.com/topic/market-highlights), [Fireside Charts](http://1782947.hs-sites.com/topic/fireside-charts) The Labor Department's jobs report was released this morning and it certainly paints a rosier picture than ADP's grim analysis from earlier this week (re: only 67,000 private sector jobs added in November—[*less than half *](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/04/private-payrolls-up-67000-in-november-vs-125000-expected-adpmoodys.html?)of what was expected). With the Fed's recent adoption of the Sahm rule, we know how indicative employment numbers can be of oncoming recessions, but analysis can get tricky when you're looking at conflicting reports. Meanwhile, the previously resilient services sector is starting to show some wear; could that lend credence to some growing labor market anxieties? And we've spoken a lot about large-cap dominance this year, but a look at the S&P 500 relative to 16,000 global stocks is making us wonder if we might be in the midst of a unique cycle with some longevity left in it. And what could the same index indicate about the struggling manufacturing sector? View the charts to find out!     1. A big miss. Don't forget the [Sahm rule](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release?rid=456)...   ![adp private sector employment monthly](https://1782947.hs-sites.com/hubfs/12.6%20Chart%203.png) Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/5/19     2. So far, the trade war has really only effected manufacturing. However, the trend is also clear for the U.S. services sector; when will the decline halt?   ![ism non-manufacturing index](https://1782947.hs-sites.com/hubfs/12.6%20Chart%204.png) Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/3/19     3. U.S. Large cap has dominated for over a decade. Nothing lasts forever, but perhaps we are looking at a 17 year cycle (3 cycles make up a 50 year super-cycle) implying 6 more years of leadership...   ![S&P 500 vs. global stocks](https://1782947.hs-sites.com/hubfs/12.6%20Chart%205.png) Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/6/19     4. Is the stock market predicting a turn in manufacturing? Or is it the other way around and we are in for a "ride"...?   ![S&P 500 vs. pmi](https://1782947.hs-sites.com/hubfs/12.6%20Chart%202.png) Source: USDA, from 12/4/19     5. You just have to feel for our farmers...   ![farm flood insurance payouts 2019](https://1782947.hs-sites.com/hubfs/12.6%20Chart%208.png) Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/6/19     6. Non-OPEC oil production is soaring!   ![non-opec oil production growth projection](https://1782947.hs-sites.com/hubfs/12.6%20Chart%206.png) Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/6/19     7. A great conversation starter with your client's children. Not only do they need your help, they will inherit your asset base!   ![millennial credit card debt](https://1782947.hs-sites.com/hubfs/12.6%20Chart%201.png) Source: Commerzbank Research, from 12/4/19     8. The Indian economy, a major player in EM, is struggling.   ![india nominal gdp growth](https://1782947.hs-sites.com/hubfs/12.6%20Chart%207.png) Source: Gavekal Data & Macrobond, from 12/6/19     Emotions can run high during the holidays, especially when it comes to finances. At BCM, we offer multiple rules-based systems that seek to remove emotion from the investment decision making process and smooth the ride for investors. Click below to tell us what you're looking for in a portfolio and receive customized information on the BCM strategies that best fit your needs!   [![Get the Strategy Guide](https://no-cache.hubspot.com/cta/default/1782947/add1d548-e3fe-4a54-8a73-99554b6ab857.png)](https://cta-redirect.hubspot.com/cta/redirect/1782947/add1d548-e3fe-4a54-8a73-99554b6ab857)                   Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts. 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