Ready to get back into the chart blog after the holiday weekend? Today we start with a manufacturing data surprise with employment growth jumping significantly since January. Although the short-term trend looks more promising, real U.S. wages (inflation adjusted) are down 2.7% since 1973. The USD started to tick up as the markets responded to a more moderate FED versus its ultra-Dovish stance previously. High yield bonds are showing little sign of trouble although it might be flashing something less optimistic when we look at the historical data. Finally, do you know why bulk shipping costs are climbing rapidly? We think we might.
P.S. Stay tuned this week (or if you have not already, subscribe to the blog) for our 2Q19 Market Commentary.
1. Given all the negative news around manufacturing, here is a nice surprise... manufacturing employment jumped the most since January...
Source: Labor Department, as of 7/8/19
2. Given the trend since 1973, the short-term trend looks healthier. Will this help keep the FED from cutting as much as the markets would like?
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 7/5/19
3. This is appalling! Real U.S. wages (inflation adjusted) are DOWN 2.7%...since 1973....
Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 7/8/19
4. High yield bonds show little sign of trouble, although the yield is ~1% higher than the exceptional 2017 and early 2018 low volatility environment.
Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 7/8/19
5. With the ECB and the BOE getting more Dovish, the USD started grinding higher again as the markets begin to grapple with a more moderate (vs. ultra-Dovish) FED.
Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 7/8/19
6. So far, the FED has shed about $700 billion from its balance sheet.
Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 7/8/19
7. While the FED is reversing stimulative QE, the ECB is pouring into it...
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 7/8/19
8. An update on the U.S. trade balance:
Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 7/8/19
9. Normally a surge like this is due to economic recovery. Yet the attacks on shipping and the new rules for ship's sulfur emissions may be playing a part...
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 7/5/19
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Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.
