The financial press is reporting the dollar is "collapsing", but despite the losses due to the recently-turned Dovish FED, make sure to look at the USD over a long time horizon. U.S housing has still not fully recovered and remains at the same trough level as the previous 4 recessions. The PMI indices show U.S. business activity stalling in June. Also this month, the Baltic Dry shipping index is recovering. Europe's manufacturing is still contracting. Lastly, intellectual property claims in China are on the rise.
1. The financial press has recently implied that the dollar is "collapsing"...here is the chart:
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Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 6/24/19
2. U.S. housing is still at the trough level of the previous 4 recessions and has yet to "fully" recover...
Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 6/24/19
3. With record cash outflows from U.S. equities and only 23% of the S&P 500 stock reaching new highs, does market breadth matter?
Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 6/24/19
4. Is this from a better supply/demand standpoint or due to terrorism and sinkings?
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/21/19
5. Perspective on the steel tariffs...
Source: wordsteel, as of 6/24/19
6. So the Chinese can steal other's IP but not their own?
Source: Supreme People's Court, as of 6/24/19
7. The U.S. Services PMI is not looking much better...
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/21/19
8. Do trade wars matter? Our nation is 0.2 away from being in manufacturing contraction...The U.S. started the trade war in March of 2018...
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/21/19
9. Europe, as a whole, still shows manufacturing contraction.
Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/21/19
10. ...and here is gold's move put into a similar context:
Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 6/24/19
In chart #8, BCM Investment Team reminded our readers that the trade war started over a year ago in March. Have you felt the consequences yet? Even if you have not, prepare for any and future losses in our Investment Losses piece below.
Read on about what risk means to you as an investor, and how to theorize and digest losses in terms of investment returns, time, and dollars below.
Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.
